INDIAN OCEAN
Towards a stable and sustainable Indian Ocean
TDS
12 February 2024
As chair of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) President Ranil Wickremesinghe of Sri Lanka visited Perth, Australia to attend the 7th Indian Ocean Conference (IOC) and delivered the keynote address. (Below is his full speech)
Other dignitaries who attended the conference included Indian Foreign Minister Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Ambassador Salman Al Farisi, IORA Secretary General who were hosted by Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Connectivity and infrastructure logistics were highlight points of the discussions which projected exponential growth figures of some countries within the regional bloc, especially countries like India and Indonesia.
Following is the full speech delivered by the President:
“The theme of this Conference – “Towards a Stable and Sustainable Indian Ocean”- could not be more timely and more appropriate.
The Australasian continent is unique in that it has borders with both Indian and Pacific Oceans. Perth has played a crucial role in the history of Sri Lanka – Australia relations.
During World War II, Royal Canadian Air Force Catalina Flying Boats, traversed the expanse of the Indian Ocean, connecting Perth with Koggala Air Base in Ceylon. This was the only air link between the Indian Sub-Continent and Australia. Known as Double Sunrise, they operated a non-stop route up to 32 hours in radio silence, to ensure the success of a critical air route during World War II for the Allies.
The Japanese attacks in April 1942 on the Indian Ocean, especially Ceylon, was described by British Premier Winston Churchill as the most dangerous moment of the War, highlighting the importance of the Indian Ocean to the British Empire.
Firstly, historically speaking, the Indian Ocean is multi-polar and has resisted domination by a single power. This multi-polarity is a reflection of the essence of the Indian Ocean region and its people. As Asia emerged from colonialism the newly independent countries of Asia such as Ceylon, India, Indonesia, Burma (Myanmar) and Pakistan convened the Bandung Conference in 1955 to oppose colonialism in all its forms.
The conference declaration to oppose big power rivalry in turn led to the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). Since then the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) has been influenced by the Spirit of Bandung. It has never become a part of the US Hub and Spoke system.
The past two decades has seen the emergence of diverse framings of the IOR and a flurry of diplomatic activity articulating various policy positions, tilts, and frameworks. No single, objective geopolitical construct has emerged, and we are left instead with a contested vision with multiple interpretations.
The key frameworks that have emerged include in addition to IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association), Indo-Pacific, BRI, QUAD, and the BRICS. There are also regional organisations including ASEAN, ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum), ACD (Asia Cooperation Dialogue) BIMSTEC, SAARC, GCC, Arab League, OIC, SADC, EAC and SCO that have been established.
Additionally, we have the operational arrangements that deal with specific areas of cooperation including RCEP, IONS, the Djibouti Code of Conduct, IOTC, Indian Ocean Commission (IOC), MASE, four Regional Information Fusion Centres (Singapore, India, Seychelles and Madagascar), and the CGPCS (Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia).
Complex task
We also see an increased militarisation of the Indian Ocean which is redefining power balances and alliances. In the maritime space we see a building up in naval capabilities in India, and with USA, Australia, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China all increasing their naval presence significantly. Therefore, balancing between the great power rivalries is becoming an increasingly more complex task.
As a result, the space for maneuverability for Littoral States is shrinking fast as this rivalry in the IOR intensifies and spills over into decision making on political, economic and security issues. The proverbial question to choose one over the other is perennially hanging over us.
Secondly, the geopolitical developments have resulted in an increase in the strategic importance of the Western Indian Ocean that was not foreseen four years ago. This in turn is shifting the geopolitical emphasis towards the Indian Ocean.
The Ukrainian War, and the consequent Western sanctions on Russia has resulted in the resource rich economy finding new markets in China and the Western Indian Ocean. For e.g. Russian Crude Oil is refined in the Gulf refineries. Dubai has replaced London as the financial centre for the oligarchs. Russia has developed a closer friendship with Iran, which is an important source of supply for drones. Russia is carrying on naval exercises with Indian Ocean countries, including Myanmar and South Africa.
China itself has played an active role in healing the rift between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Iran and its allies have become important players in West Asia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, with India, Pakistan and Iran as members have the Western Indian Ocean as its outer limits.
The ill-advised judgment of the US in supporting the Gaza War will diminish its influence in the region. The hostility of the countries forming the Islamic Arch in the Indian Ocean will prevent any close rapprochement with the US for some time. The Russian, Chinese and Iranian strategies are successfully biting at the US hegemony thereby further weakening the US. The Indian Ocean stability requires an early end to the Gaza war followed by the establishment within five years of an Independent Palestine State and guarantees for the security of the State of Israel.
Thirdly, the recent attacks on commercial vessels by the Yemen-based Houthi rebels, is a challenge to ‘Freedom Of Navigation’ (FON). We have to ensure access and mobility in the Suez Canal, Red Sea, Bab-el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. In addition, we also face the threat of Somali Pirates. The safety of undersea cables and critical infrastructure is also facing additional threats. The presence of drugs in the Indian Ocean and Human Smuggling has increased. Illegal fishing still takes place. These threats present challenges to the FON. We need to refocus on the FON in the IOR. Sri Lanka offers to recommence the discussions on the FON in the IOR.
Fourth, is expanding connectivity. According to estimates there will be an eight-fold increase in the GDP of India and Indonesia by 2050. Similar increases are expected in some other countries in South and West Asia. This requires additional port capacities and new transport routes. The Suez Canal may not be sufficient.
In this regard India’s two new connectivity initiatives are welcome. Firstly, the India (Mumbai) – Iran – Russia corridor and secondly the India (Mumbai) – Middle East – Europe corridor. Similarly, there are connectivity initiatives taking place in the Bay of Bengal. Work has already commenced on the Chongqing – Kyaukphyu corridor giving access to Western China.
Thailand is planning the Kra land bridge connecting the Gulf of Siam with the Bay of Bengal. India and Sri Lanka are commencing feasibility studies on land connectivity between the two countries making Sri Lanka a Regional Logistics Hub with Colombo and Trincomalee Ports available to South India.
The IOC theme this year highlights the two key areas which require our focus. What I have outlined before, dealt primarily with pursuing stability of the region. There is an equally serious, more immediate and existential threat – the Climate Crisis.
Experts have revealed that the Indian Ocean is warming at a higher rate than other oceans. The levels of warming are estimated to be three times higher than in the Pacific and coastal areas across the IOR will experience a continuous rise in sea levels and face severe coastal erosion.
The Indian Ocean is also rising at a level of 3.7 mm annually and extreme sea disasters are inevitable. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the IOR are vulnerable and have to be provided with adequate resources to mitigate the effects of Climate Change. Changes at sea also affect monsoon patterns and in turn impact on agriculture and food security across the IOR. They also impact on the biodiversity and food and livelihood of people of the littoral states.
Climate crisis
The Indian Ocean presents opportunities in terms of ecology. Not only is it our biggest sink for Carbon, but it also provides potential for mitigating the Climate Crisis, through offshore wind, solar, and wave energy. Through seaweed farming and mangrove cultivation we can increase the sequestration of Carbon.
Sustainable exploitation of our Ocean’s resources is critical for our survival, as the Ocean provides for our future.
At COP 28 Sri Lanka proposed three key initiatives, (1) the Tropical Belt Initiative, including the Indian Ocean (2) The International Climate Change University and the Climate Justice Forum (CJF). As the current Chair of the IORA, Sri Lanka is focusing on the interdependence between the Indian Ocean and Climate Change. The CJF aims to accelerate financing of losses and damages and includes debt justice as an essential component of the overall solution. Any proposals for mitigation and adaptation interventions must take into account the debt component faced by Climate-vulnerable and developing countries.
We are living in uncertain times. The stability we had taken for granted since the end of WWII and the Cold War is unravelling. Globalisation is being challenged as is multilateralism. The Climate Crisis is affecting prospects for trade and economic development. It is impacting on food security, livelihoods, supply chains, biodiversity and maritime transportation. Either we can wait for global developments to dictate our fate or unite, so that we may chart our own course.
Creating a safer ocean environment by building confidence and predictability among users and enhancing ocean situational awareness will be the key to maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean. The main platform that can undertake this important task is the IORA. Ensuring a peaceful and secure Indian Ocean would facilitate sustainable use of oceans for the economic and social benefit of coastal and Littoral States.
An overarching architecture for the Indian Ocean that deals with critical issues is required. The basis for such a structure is already in existence including the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982) and the recently adopted BBNJ agreement in 2023 on the conservation and sustainable use of marine biological diversity of areas beyond national jurisdiction or the High Seas Treaty (HST).